What a market entry verdict looks like
An EU industrial software company tests Japan for eight weeks. The company is fictional; the format is the one a client receives, page for page.
1. The verdict
GO-IF.
The market answered, but under the bar signed before the pilot. Commit only when two named conditions are met.
- Demand is real, but it arrives through integrators, not directly.
- The price holds at the lower band, not at the premium band.
- A Japanese-speaking pre-sales partner is the gating factor.
2. Scorecard against the signed thresholds
| Test | Threshold signed before the pilot | Measured | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 Demand | 12 qualified demo requests in 8 weeks | 9 | Below the bar |
| T2 Price | 3 of 6 buyers accept the lower band | 4 of 6 | Pass |
| T3 Channel | 2 vetted distributors ready to resell | 2 | Pass |
| T4 Language | Sales and support can run in Japanese | Required | Condition |
The verdict follows the scorecard. Where judgment overrode a number, it is flagged and argued, never silent.
3. What we tested
T1 Demand
Hypothesis: mid-sized manufacturers will ask for a demo. Method: a localized page and targeted outreach for eight weeks. The market answered: nine qualified requests, against twelve signed. Confidence: medium, small sample.
T2 Price
Hypothesis: buyers accept the lower price band. Method: one price put in front of six buyers. The market answered: four accepted. Confidence: medium.
T3 Channel
Hypothesis: distributors will resell on stated terms. Method: eight conversations, two vetted partners. The market answered: two ready to resell. Confidence: high on intent, medium on capacity.
4. Conditions
| Condition | Testable how | Owner | Deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| A Japanese-speaking pre-sales partner is signed | Signed agreement and one joint demo | Client | Within six weeks |
| Price retested at the lower band | Six new buyers asked, four accept | Market Desk | Within eight weeks |
5. What you keep, either way
- This evidence file.
- The launch kit built so far.
- The partner shortlist with vetting notes.
- A 90-day plan after a GO, or the reopening triggers after a NO-GO.
Eight questions, two minutes
The Reality Check names your first step: report, audit or pilot, or what to prepare at home.